Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.367757 0.427383 0.492079 0.567301 0.652151 0.744694 0.853052
2025-05-11 0.286989 0.365246 0.456673 0.570648 0.708134 0.867802 1.066369
2025-05-18 0.213758 0.297790 0.403350 0.544036 0.724756 0.947080 1.238980
2025-05-25 0.156414 0.239246 0.351275 0.510855 0.728791 1.012057 1.403376
2025-06-01 0.120923 0.202938 0.322171 0.503169 0.764944 1.122820 1.640463
2025-06-08 0.092611 0.171033 0.293724 0.492127 0.795551 1.230905 1.888478
2025-06-15 0.075944 0.153697 0.284042 0.507472 0.866862 1.405159 2.249682
2025-06-22 0.056260 0.126269 0.253000 0.484457 0.877371 1.493055 2.497757
2025-06-29 0.042708 0.106341 0.230588 0.471820 0.902747 1.606975 2.798478
2025-07-06 0.032013 0.088830 0.208717 0.456192 0.921007 1.712175 3.097889
2025-07-13 0.026211 0.080233 0.202363 0.468301 0.989716 1.908270 3.564269
2025-07-20 0.020581 0.070037 0.190323 0.467189 1.034397 2.068902 3.988560
2025-07-27 0.016414 0.062332 0.182611 0.475181 1.100890 2.281017 4.532240
2025-08-03 0.012957 0.055139 0.174301 0.480564 1.163794 2.495000 5.102699
2025-08-10 0.009265 0.045194 0.156071 0.459611 1.169742 2.604321 5.497832
2025-08-17 0.006374 0.036139 0.137127 0.432497 1.158152 2.678887 5.837492
2025-08-24 0.004753 0.030936 0.127607 0.427143 1.194551 2.853522 6.385046
2025-08-31 0.003473 0.026191 0.117760 0.418619 1.222425 3.014246 6.921602
2025-09-07 0.002819 0.024059 0.116057 0.432903 1.308020 3.306327 7.746427
2025-09-14 0.001933 0.019608 0.104020 0.413559 1.306585 3.410505 8.199556
2025-09-21 0.001369 0.016469 0.095586 0.403125 1.326460 3.564118 8.769116
2025-09-28 0.000944 0.013653 0.087051 0.389955 1.336774 3.697098 9.306723
2025-10-05 0.000749 0.012513 0.085616 0.400960 1.416085 3.998921 10.232890